In the high-stakes scramble for New York City’s mayoral office, Democratic Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and former Governor Andrew Cuomo continue to vie for dominance. Recent polling data sheds critical light on where each candidate stands—and raises the question: is Mamdani genuinely in trouble—or still riding a wave of momentum?

General Election vs. Head-to-Head Matchups

A recent poll by Tulchin Research paints a mixed picture. In a five-way general election scenario, Mamdani leads with 42%, significantly ahead of Cuomo at . Other candidates—Curtis Sliwa, Eric Adams, and Jim Walden—lag behind with 17%, 9%, and 3%, respectively.

However, in a hypothetical one-on-one showdown, the narrative shifts: Mamdani would apparently lose to Cuomo, with a margin of 41% to Cuomo’s 52%

This contrast highlights a key weakness in Mamdani’s appeal—he struggles when voters are directly presented with a binary choice—and could be a real vulnerability in November.

Other Polling Snapshots: Mamdani’s Lead Still Holds

Despite the head-to-head setback, Mamdani is consistently leading in broader contest scenarios.

A Siena Institute poll places Mamdani at 44%, with Cuomo at 25%, Curtis Sliwa at 12%, and Eric Adams at 7%.

American Pulse Research & Polling shows Mamdani holding 36.9%, Cuomo at 24.6%, Sliwa at16.8%, and Adams at11.4%—even though 58.4% of respondents say Mamdani’s past support for defunding the police makes them less likely to back him.

Overall, multiple polls confirm Mamdani’s continued front-runner status in multi-candidate scenarios.

Primary Race & Ranked-Choice Voting Dynamics

The Democratic primary, held on June 24, employed ranked-choice voting—a system that involves voters ranking candidates in order of preference.

Emerson College / PIX11 / The Hill poll (late June) showed Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in final-round tallies:Mamdani wins with 52%, Cuomo at 48%

On actual primary night, Mamdani secured 43.8% of first-choice votes, with Cuomo at 36.1%, eventually winning decisively in the final round with 56.4% to Cuomo’s 43.6%, according to official election results.
Thus, in the primary, Mamdani not only challenged but defeated Cuomo—emblematic of his rising appeal among key voting blocs.

Why Mamdani May Be in Trouble—But Not Out

Head-to-Head WeaknessPolls suggest Mamdani struggles in direct one-on-one matchups with Cuomo. This underscores vulnerability if the general election narrows into a two-way race.

Demographic DividesSeveral polls highlight significant demographic splits. Mamdani fares strongest among younger voters, white voters, and college-educated voters. Cuomo retains strength among Black voters, older voters, and women.

Cuomo’s independent campaign—coupled with his name recognition, perceived competence, and endorsements—remains a formidable force despite past scandals. One-Pro-Mamdani ads critique Cuomo’s bail reforms and ethics; meanwhile, Cuomo attacks Mamdani’s defund-the-police past.

>What’s at Stake for November

In a fractured race, Mamdani seems well-positioned—or even in the lead.

In a consolidated contest, he faces a tougher climb.

The strategy ahead: Mamdani must expand beyond his base, win over independent and moderate voters, and dominate ground operations to maintain his edge against Cuomo and other opponents.